What do we mean by pivot point trading? It simply means that Forex traders take into account pivot points calculated from the previous day’s trading range and use them as reference points to identify support and resistance levels.
Taking the high, low, close and open values of the previous day’s price action, strategic levels can be identified which may or may not have an influence on price action. Pivot point trading puts emphasis on these levels, and uses them to guide entry and exit points for trades.
However, as with any technical indicator, there are limitations and pivot point trading, to be high probability, needs to stay within certain parameters. The following 7 guidelines can help pivot point trading be more profitable:
No. 1
Pivot points should not be used as a standalone indicator. Do not enter or exit trades purely on the basis of pivot points. Use them in conjunction with other indicators such as candle patterns, Fibonacci levels, MACD, and moving averages to identify and confirm key levels of support and resistance which may provide trading opportunities.
No. 2
While some traders living in various parts of the world may calculate their pivot points according to the time zone in which they live, a fairly safe standard for calculating the levels of pivot point trading is to use GMT (Greenwich Meantime).
Midnight GMT is a very quiet time in the market with very little volatility and provides a good opportunity to calculate more accurate pivot levels going from midnight GMT to midnight GMT the following day.
No. 3
It is good to understand what is going on behind the scenes when it comes to pivot point trading. Rather than just staring at candles on a chart, understand what they actually represent.
Thousands of traders around the world, some working for large institutions and handling millions or even billions of dollars worth of currency, are taking positions according to previously established highs and lows in the market.
Pivot points draw attention to these key levels which will often be strongly defended by traders who have a lot at stake. This is the reason pivot point trading can be so successful, once a trader understands underlying reasons for price action.
No. 4
It is good to calculate mid levels in addition to the S1, S2, R1, and R2 pivot levels. Sometimes there is a significant gap between these levels and calculating a mid point gives another point of reference. Price will often be seen respecting M1, M2, M3, or M4.
To calculate mid levels, simply subtract the level below from the level above and divide by 2. (see the resource box for a free pivot point calculator)
No. 5
Pivot point trading can be a useful strategy for entering and exiting trades at the right time. A pivot point can provide a key level of support or resistance where price is likely to bounce for a 10-20 pip profit.
Or in the case of a trend, price may retrace to a pivot level before continuing its run. The retracement point at the pivot level would be a good place to put an entry order to be taken in when price comes back to retest at the pivot level.
No. 6
The Euro - US dollar pair often puts in a daily average of between 75 and 100 pips. Watch for specific behavior around the time of the London market open. Price will often come back to test a level which is a pivot point and form a distinctive candle pattern such as tweezers, or a hanging man, and then reverse and go on its 75-100 pip run for the day.
If price comes back to the M1 level check your other indicators to see if they confirm this would be a good level to go long. Likewise, if price, just around London open, tests the M4 level, check your other indicators to see if this would be a good place to go short. You may be able to get a slice of the 75-100 pip run for the day.
No. 7
Pivot point trading helps mentally in establishing the buy zone and the sell zone. Traditionally, anything above the Central Pivot Point is a Sell area, and everything below the Central Pivot Point is a Buy area.
If you go contrary to that, make sure you double check your analysis and have very good reasons for doing otherwise.
Pivot point trading is just one of an arsenal of weapons available to Forex market participants. However, it must be stated that many successful traders use just a handful of tools that become their favorites. After all, too many indicators can lead to decision paralysis.
For many traders, pivot points are a key element in their overall trading strategy. Use the 7 guidelines above to use them safely and responsibly.
For a free pivot point calculator, Fibonacci calculator and the best free economic calendars click here:
http://www.vitalstop.com/Forex/tools.html
Click here to learn how to use another indicator, the 200 EMA, in a simple yet powerful way:
http://www.vitalstop.com/Forex/Advisor/200EMA-forex-strategy.htm
Do you know the important lesson Mohammed Ali teaches us about Forex trading? Read it here:
http://www.vitalstop.com/Forex/Advisor/forex-online-trading-mohammed-ali.htm
Posted by alex on Monday, January 26th, 2009
There are tons of courses in currency trading out there. How do you know which one to choose? Well it really depends on what it is you’re looking for. If you’re brand new to currency trading and want to find out the basics or if you have experience and are looking to learn how to profitably trade the markets?
If you’re a beginner to forex and what to understand the first steps of trading forex, then a couple of options are babypips.com or any number of great forex forums like forex factory. Babypips has a ton of great mini courses in currency trading. They have a new lesson almost everyday. Their approach is both very accessible and fun. It’s just a perfect place to quickly learn the basics of currency trading. Another great place to learn are forums like Forex Factory. It can be a little daunting and is not as well organized as Babypips but there is a mountain of information on some of the basics of trading.
If you are a seasoned veteran of forex trading and still struggling along, then you are probably looking for something more advanced. You’ve struggled with the markets and are looking for a solution. I’d recommend trying to understand price action. Try to find courses in currency trading that focus on trading without indicators. I know this may sound strange considering everywhere you look, people are talking about trading systems with stochastics, MACD, moving averages and many other lagging indicators. But if you can understand the underlying reasons of price movement by looking at a naked chart, then you’ll have an advantage over 95% of the trading public.
Forex trading success is much easier once you understand what you’re looking at.
Make sure to check out my honest, unbiased reviews of forex trading courses.
Posted by alex on Sunday, January 25th, 2009
In order to completely break free of your financial problems, bankruptcy training is essential to get you on the right path and out of debt as quickly as possible.
There are many financial counseling companies that will help you map out a plan for your financial future, and finding them isn’t difficult. Just doing a quick Google search will produce plenty of results.
The important thing you want to look for is a company that has experience in training people who’ve recently filed for bankruptcy, and has a long track record of success stories. When going on their sites, try to find bankruptcy training companies that display many testimonials, as these are real live people who’ve benefit from the training that company provided them.
Also, ask around for people you know of who’ve recently filed for bankruptcy, and see which bankruptcy training company they decided to go with. This is a quick and dirty way of finding the best, because it prevents you from having to do the research yourself, which can obviously take a lot of time and hassle.
With that said, here is some quick information to help you get on the road to financial freedom, regardless of where you’ve been in the past. First of all, keep in mind that most millionaires are bankrupt an average of three times in their life.
Therefore, when you look at it this way, you are in some very respectable company. The important thing is not what happened the past-the past is the past. The future is all that matters.
All too many people spend their whole lives regretting the past, even though there’s nothing that can be done to change this. What can be done is to change your future, which involved learning from your past mistakes and taking different actions.
The only thing the past is good for is to learn from it, so do this. Here’s one tip you should start applying right now: invest at least 10% of your money every single month. There are many ways you can invest, from real estate, forex currency, the stock market, etc.
The important thing is that you pick one method and stick with it. it may not pay off at once, but as you keep pouring money into that investment each and every month, it will build up quicker than you ever thought possible.
Along with this, get some good bankruptcy training at a respected company using the techniques and suggestions above, and you will be on the right financial track very quickly.
For more info on bankruptcy training, check out onlinebankruptcytips.com. This is a popular site where you can learn about anything related to bankruptcy, including finding the best San Francisco Bankruptcy Attorney and much more.
Posted by alex on Thursday, January 22nd, 2009
There may be dozens of strategies in Forex trading. Let’s just talk about the roots.
Nature Of Market:
Every thing in the universe has its NATURE. So is Forex market. So is every currencies pair in this market. For example, GBP/JPY always moves faster, and its wave range is longer than other pairs, such as a hundred pips during a day or even a hour. EUR/GBP generally waves narrowly several pips only within a day. For American, EUR/USD and GBP/USD like to sleep in day and dance at night. AUD/USD and NZD/USD look like twin, they commonly act in the same style, if one of they goes north, another one does not like to go south. But EUR/USD and USD/CHF are doomed to be enemy, while one of them flies up like a hydrogen balloon, the counterpart mostly will drop like a lead ball. And so on, so on.
Once we find this kind of “Nature of Market”, we can develop and figure out some strategies for particular currencies pairs, just follow their nature, predict their moving direction and range. Then we will get our own trading strategy and system.
Fundamental Trading:
In Forex market, many professional analysts like to use a kind of method to predict the future. It is so-called “Fundamental Analysis”. Based on this method, they develop many kinds of strategies to trade Forex. These are strategies of forecasting the future price movements of currencies based on economic, political, environmental and other relevant factors and statistics that will affect the basic supply and demand of whatever underlies the foreign currencies.
If you like to try Fundamental Trading, you need learn and understand a lot of finance knowledge. Actually, not only finance knowledge, you need to be interested at many things of this world, including politics, economy, geography, culture, diplomacy, even military affairs. And you need to study the core underlying elements that influence the economy of a particular entity. For example, when the USA’s GDP or employment report is strong, you begin to get a fairly clear picture: the general health of America’s economy is good. So the US dollar should be stronger than other currencies. But how far can the US dollar go? Fundamental Trading may not answer this question very accurately. You may need to come up with other precise tools as to how best to translate this information into entry and exit points for a particular trading strategy.
Hedge:
In finance, a hedge is an investment that is taken out specifically to reduce the risk in another investment. Hedging is a strategy designed to minimize exposure to an unwanted business risk, while still allowing the business to profit from an investment activity.
In FOREX, there are two kinds of similar “hedging” strategies:
1, Buy and Sell the same currencies pair, same lots, same timing. Then let it go. While one of those orders goes north, the counterpart will go south. After the winner takes profit, we can wait for the loser turning around. In a yo-yo market, this method works well.
For example, buy 2 lots GBP/USD at 2.0003, at the same time sell 2 lots GBP/USD at 1.9997. While the rate rises up to 2.0053, we close the buy order and take profit 50 pips. Now, the sell order will draw down around 50 pips. Let’s wait for the rate falling down, it will fall down usually, especially in yo-yo market environment. If the rate drops down to 2.0037, close the sell order, the sell order will lose 40 pips. Does it hurt? No. Don’t forget the 50 pips we have taken at the buy order. Totally, we can get 50-40=10 pips. Furthermore, if the rate keeps falling, let’s say down to 2.0027, we can take 50-30=20 pips, etc.
Some people would doubt it… doesn’t this “strategy” sound like hedging flat for nothing, just paying double spread? Why bother? Well, they are right, because we forgot mentioning the key point: timing of closing orders. When to close the winning order to set a foundation and when to close the losing order to lock the profit, there are some tricks inside. Experienced traders use technical analysis skills to decide this vital timing. Believe it or not, those experienced traders say that this method helps them screening false signals out.
This kind of “Yo-Yo Hedge” can work at any currencies pair.
2, Buy (or sell) unequal lots of special currencies pairs and buy unequal quantities of another kinds of currencies pairs which usually move in the opposite direction. This seems a “Semi-Hedge” trading strategy. It is created based on “Correlation” between some particular currencies pairs. So it is not suitable for every currencies pair.
Actually, this kind of hedge has another feature: earning SWAP! You earn interest daily on the held position which can yield up to 50% per year of your full account balance.
There are several pairs can do it. Such as EUR/USD Vs. USD /CHF, GBP/USD Vs. USD/CHF, AUD/USD Vs. NZD/USD, EUR/JPY Vs. CHF/JPY, GBP/JPY Vs. CHF/JPY.
Let’s take the EUR/USD and the CHF/USD pairs.
These pairs are historically negatively correlative 93-98% of the time. That is when one pair goes up the other goes down, and vice versa, up to 98% of the time. In a high leverage account (as high as 400:1 or 500:1), you could earn 50% SWAP interest in a year. How? Let’s say you have $5,000 in your account and a 10% risk margin set. If the net interest we receive is 1.25% annually, this 1.25% interest will be enlarged to 50% per annum, by the 400:1 leverage.
And, this return does not include the buy low/sell high profits.
But, if the base of this kind of hedge collapses, it means the “Correlation” does not exist any more, for example the “Correlation” drops under 50% or lower, there will be a disaster.
Arbitrage:
Some people call “Arbitrage” as a risk free strategy. But other people call it as a trick which looks like the cat pawing chestnuts from a fire. But in theory, its risk is minimum in deed. We introduce three types of arbitrage strategies here:
1, Triangle Arbitrage: Searching for two highly fast-moving pairs (like EUR/USD and USD/JPY), the price of a not-so-fast moving pair like EURJPY should always be derived by multiplying (or dividing, etc) the fast-moving pairs. So for example, if EUR/USD is 1.4871 and USD/JPY is 108.24, the logical price of EUR/JPY should be 1.2 x 120 = 160.96. But at the same time, the real EUR/JPY rate is 160.90. The slower moving pair lags behind the logical price, then profit opportunity comes.
In practice currencies are quoted with a bid ask spread, so a trader should be careful that he is actually buying at the quoted ask price, and selling at the quoted bid price. Other transaction costs, such as commissions, might also invalidate the apparent free lunch.
More pairs:
AUD/CAD CAD/JPY AUD/JPY
AUD/CAD GBP/CAD GBP/AUD
AUD/CAD USD/CAD AUD/USD
AUD/CHF CHF/JPY AUD/JPY
AUD/CHF GBP/CHF GBP/AUD
AUD/CHF USD/CHF AUD/USD
AUD/JPY EUR/JPY EUR/AUD
AUD/JPY GBP/JPY GBP/AUD
AUD/JPY USD/JPY AUD/USD
AUD/USD GBP/USD GBP/AUD
AUD/USD USD/CAD AUD/CAD
AUD/USD USD/CHF AUD/CHF
AUD/USD USD/JPY AUD/JPY
CAD/JPY EUR/JPY EUR/CAD
CAD/JPY GBP/JPY GBP/CAD
CAD/JPY USD/JPY USD/CAD
CHF/JPY EUR/JPY EUR/CHF
CHF/JPY GBP/JPY GBP/CHF
EUR/AUD AUD/CHF EUR/CHF
EUR/AUD AUD/JPY EUR/JPY
EUR/AUD AUD/USD EUR/USD
EUR/AUD GBP/AUD EUR/GBP
EUR/CAD AUD/CAD EUR/AUD
EUR/CAD GBP/CAD EUR/CAD
EUR/CAD USD/CAD EUR/USD
EUR/CHF AUD/CHF EUR/AUD
EUR/CHF GBP/CHF EUR/GBP
EUR/CHF USD/CHF EUR/USD
EUR/GBP GBP/AUD EUR/AUD
EUR/GBP GBP/CAD EUR/CAD
EUR/GBP GBP/CHF EUR/CHF
EUR/GBP GBP/JPY EUR/JPY
EUR/GBP GBP/USD EUR/USD
EUR/JPY GBP/JPY EUR/GBP
EUR/JPY USD/JPY EUR/USD
EUR/USD GBP/USD EUR/GBP
EUR/USD USD/JPY EUR/JPY
GBP/JPY USD/JPY GBP/USD
2, Hedging Arbitrage:
This technique is the safest ever, and the most profitable of all hedging techniques while keeping minimal risks. This technique uses the arbitrage of roll over interest rates (SWAP) between two brokers.
One broker which pays or charges roll over interest at end of day, and the other should not charge or pay this kind of roll over SWAP interest. The main idea about this type of Hedge Arbitrage is to open a position of currency (Fore example, the highest SWAP GBP/JPY) at a broker which will pay you a high interest for every night the position is carried, and to open a reverse of that position for the same currency with the broker that does not charge interest for carrying the trade. This way you will gain the interest or SWAP that is credited to your account, risk-free.
3, Netting Arbitrage:
The main idea behind the strategy is, using differences between cross rates (such as EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and EUR/GBP) at different markets.
For example, suppose you had opened the following positions:
buy 1 lot EUR/USD at 1.4867;
sell 1 lot EUR/GBP at 0.7600;
and sell 0.76 lot GBP/USD at 1.9586.
The netting/clearing gives the following results:
Long EUR from the first pair and short EUR from the second pair gives zero exposure in EUR.
Long position in GBP from the second pair and short position from the third pair gives zero exposure in GBP.
Short position from the first pair ($148,670.00) in USD and long position from the third pair ($195,860.00*0.76) in USD gives you $183.60 profit without open positions and exposures.
Simple? Not really for small traders, may be for those “big brothers” only. Because it is really hard to play spread, slippage, stop loss hunting or so on games against brokers.
Carry Trading:
Carry trading is a well known trading strategy which an investor sells a certain currency with a relatively low interest rate and uses the funds to purchase a different currency yielding a higher interest rate. Then this investor can make profit from the difference of these two interest rates.
JPY is currently considered to be the most popular currency to use as the low interest yielding currency in the carry trade, because its interest rate is the lowest of the world almost at 0. And GBP is currently considered to be the high yielding currency. So are NZD and AUD.
When we buy these currencies pairs: GBP/JPY, AUD/JPY, GBP/CHF, USD/JPY, or EUR/CHF;
Or sell: EUR/AUD, EUR/GBP, AUD/NZD;
Both actions can yield positive SWAP roll over interest. If combining with some kinds of hedge trading, we can make as high as 100% profit annually and keep the risk low.
The big risk in a carry trading is the uncertainty of exchange rates. Also, these transactions are generally done with a high leverage, so a small movement in exchange rates can result in huge losses unless hedged appropriately.
Martingale:
Originally, martingale referred to a class of betting strategies popular in 18th century France. In Forex trading, the strategy let the trader double his/her order lots after every loss, so that the first win would recover all previous losses plus win a profit equal to the original investment. In the example below, you bought 1 lot EUR/USD at 1.4650. Unfortunately, the rate drops. You play it in martingale way, “double down”, buy two lots, you need the EUR/USD to rally from 1.4630 to 1.4640 to break even. As the price moves lower and you add four lots, you only need it to rally to 1.4625 instead of 1.4640 to break even. The more lots you add, the lower your average entry price. Even though you may lose 100 pips on the first lot of the EUR/USD if the price hits 1.4550, you only need the currencies pair to rally to 1.4569 to break even on your entire holdings. Once the rate goes up one more pip, you will win a lot.
EUR/USD Lots Average or Breakeven Price
1.4650 1 1.4650
1.4630 2 1.4640
1.4610 4 1.4625
1.4590 8 1.4605
1.4570 16 1.4588
1.4550 32 1.4569
The Martingale strategy needs a very strict money management and you must understand that in the beginning money will be coming slowly, but if you lose the patience and raise risk level up to much, you may not hang on to the end to see the turn-around.
Anti-Martingale:
The anti-martingale strategy is the opposite of the better known martingale approach. This approach instead increases order lots after wins, while reducing them after a loss. Using an anti-martingale risk management scheme will increase profits during time periods when a trading approach is working well, while automatically decreasing exposure during portions of the cycle where trading is unprofitable. This is believed to decrease the risk of ruin for trading.
Grid:
Basically the trader sets a series of entry limit orders X pips from the current price, for example 15 pips. Some experienced traders like to use the Fibonacci Series Numbers (0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, …) or Golden Section Numbers to make this grid. Once price hits the level the limit order is executed. Then every 15 pips there is another order at limit price executed. And so on. In a yo-yo market, while the price moves up or down, there always be some limit orders executed. Once the order is taken profit, and the price moves to its original level again, a new limit order shall be executed again, then repeat the same process. Just open orders and take profits in a set of “grid”. It is simple and easy, but hard to deal with when and how to close all orders, especially the Stop Loss. Some experts say we do not need stop loss, but will you take the chance to hold your all positions till “Margin Call?”
Day trading:
This refers to the practice of buying and selling currencies pairs such that all positions will usually be closed within the same Forex the trading day. The day trading idea comes from stock market. Day traders rapidly buy and sell stocks throughout the day in the hope that their stocks will continue climbing or falling in value for the seconds to minutes they own the stock, allowing them to lock in quick profits. Day trading is extremely risky and can result in substantial financial losses in a very short period of time. Under the rules of NYSE and NASD, customers who are deemed “pattern day traders” must have at least $25,000 in their accounts and can only trade in margin accounts.
But in Forex market, every one can be a day trader to do day trading. Actually, more than day trading, they can do “scalping”.
Scalping:
Scalping is a trading style where small price gaps created by the bid-ask spreads are exploited. It normally involves establishing and liquidating a position quickly, usually within minutes or even seconds. It means trying to get a few points (1~3 pips only, no greed, no long term) off the market every time. This strategy is based on a fact: approximately 70 to 80% of the time, the market is in a consolidation pattern. What this means is that for the majority of time the market is not making significant moves. For example, after the USA market is closed and before the Europe market is open, the Forex market tends to range in a consolidation channel for hours at a time before making another significant move in one direction. This kind of market behavior pattern is ideal for Forex scalping. Every time you enter the market, wait 10 or 20 minutes, once you have several pips gain then cash it and go.
Scalping has some features:
1, Lower exposure, lower risks. Scalpers are only exposed in a relatively short period.
2, Smaller moves, easier to obtain. The normal wave of the market will give you several pips easily.
3, Large volume, adding profits up. Since the profit obtained per share or contract is very small due to its target of spread, they need to trade large in order to add up the profits. Scalping is not suitable for small-capital traders.
But be careful, not every broker welcomes this kind of scalping strategy. If you scalp it too quick and thin, let’s say you just hit 1 pip every 2 or 3 minutes then run, and repeat it again and again within a day, every day, you must feel high, eh? But the broker may be not happy and bans you. You will be kicked out because of your successful scalping!
Break-Out:
Using the Bollinger Bands indicator on a chart, we will find every Forex currencies pair is waving in a “band”, or a channel. By finding major support and resistance levels with technical analysis, a Break-Out strategy trader will buy this pair at the lower level of support (bottom of the band/channel) and sell them near resistance (top of the band/channel). Till now there is not a Break-Out yet.
Once the price breaks the upper range line with larger-than-average volume, or the opposite: the price breaks the lower range line with larger-than-average volume, the chance is coming. The idea of this strategy is that when a currencies pair breaks out of the channel, it usually experiences a large price movement in the direction of the breakout. So buy it at the price breaks the upper range line and continue to hold it until the rate has risen a distance comparable to the height of the range. If it goes down instead, stop losses as it penetrates the upper range line. Or, sell it at the price breaks the lower range line, and continue to hold it until the rate has fallen a distance comparable to the height of the range. If it goes up instead, stop losses as it penetrates the lower range line.
Pivot:
Besides Support and Resistance levels, many foreign exchange traders like to use another indicator to analyze and predict currency pairs’ price changes, it is so-called: the Pivot Point. To calculate and analyze pivot is a subset of technical analysis, with this bench mark, traders can locate the rotation point of the trend, and this is very helpful for deciding when and where to buy or sell.
Classical Pivot Point, Support and Resistance Formulas are as follows:
Look at any one chart, the pivot is an average of the previous bar’s high, low, and closing prices. In the following formula, “H” represents the previous bar’s high, “L” represents the previous bar’s low, and “C” represents the previous bar’s closing price.
Current Bar’s Pivot Point (P)=Previous Bar’s (H+L+C)/3
First level of support and resistance can be calculated as follows:
First Resistance Level (R1)=(2*P)-L
First Support Level (S1)=(2*P)-H
Likewise, the second level of support and resistance:
Second Resistance Level (R2)=P+(R1-S1)
Second Support Level (S2)=P-(R1-S1)
Since many currency pairs tend to fluctuate between Support and Resistance levels, and these levels are calculated based on Pivot points, so when a trend or breakout trader knows where the pivot point is, it will enable him/her to find out key levels that need to be broken for a move to qualify as a breakout.
News Trading:
The system is developed based on economic news events from around the world. Nearly half of those announcements have moved the market significantly. Before a big news is coming, we can buy and sell some currencies pairs at the same time, same lots, set stop loss prices for them. After the news is released, especially for the big one, both sides of buy order and sell order will jump significantly. No matter which order is a winner, just let it go. And the loser will hit the Stop Loss, just let it be. The winner’s gain minus the loser’s loss, it is your news trading profit. For example, Non-Farm Payrolls/Employment Report - The NFP is the most influential news release of every month. It’s announced on the first Friday of the month at 8:30am EST for the prior month. We can put a buy order and a sell order at market prices for GBP/USD, at 8:29 am EST. Don’t forget, set 30 pips Stop Loss level for them. Wait 2 minutes only, the news is announced, it is a big one! Then the sell order jumps over 100 pips, and the buy order drops like a brick. The brick hits the Stop Loss and the pain is over. Totally, your gain could be 100-30=70 pips. Quick and easy, cool enough?
Trend Following:
It is so simple, just follow the trend. Buy it is the most difficult strategy because no one can tell you 100% for sure what is the right TREND. Go to look at a weekly chat of USD/CAD, if you had shorted this pair in September 2001 and held it till September 2007, you know what the trend means.
The most famous trend analysis tool seems the Wave Principle. In the 1930s, Ralph Nelson Elliott discovered that stock market prices trend and reverse in recognizable patterns. Elliott isolated five such patterns, or “waves,” that recur in market price data.
Another trend analysis guru should be W. D. Gann. In 1908, Gann discovered what he called the “market time factor”, which made him one of the pioneers of technical analysis. To test his new strategy, he opened one account with $300 and one with $150. It turned out to be wildly successful: Gann was able to make $25,000 profit with his $300 account in only three months; meanwhile, he made $12,000 profit with his $150 account in only 30 days! After his results were verified, he became famous on Wall Street as one of the best forecasters of all time.
Back to the chat of USD/CAD, now, please tell me, how to follow the trend? Will USD/CAD continue the trend which is going south further to 0.6000, or, another trend going north reversely back to 1.6000?
If you would like to find out more about Forex trading, come and visit us at http://www.vdux.com
If you want to download our Raingull Automated Trading Software EA, please come to http://www.raingull.com
Posted by alex on Wednesday, January 21st, 2009
There’s an old Buddhist saying, As within, So without.
You may think its all about the charts, the fundamentals, your system and the unprecedented world economy, but haven’t there been times when you sensed there was something more to it?
Me too. Being tuned in to all that is what separates the super traders from the guys who are second mortgaging their home hoping to make a come back.
Aside from the obvious, not putting too great a percentage of your overall nugget in any one trade, how does one keep the emotional element out of decision-making? Is this emotional element the same thing as your gut feeling? It’s easy to confuse the two and it’s well worth learning to discern the difference.
Keeping notes is critical, but not just about the numbers. Taking time to notice your own patterns is invaluable in the long run if there is to be a long run.
Over-confidence can be just as deadly as under-confidence. And playing when you really don’t have the juice to, but feel like you need to can also have its consequences,
There really aren’t a lot of women out there trading, not relatively, so for a long time I thought it was only because I had focused on my inner work for so long that I was naturally using my trades as way of flushing out my deeper issues—resistance to having more than enough or the compulsion to keep trading when I had already done well enough for the time being.
But then I attended one of those weekend workshops with the best of the best. And on the very first day my trading coach said, the market is mirror—a stark mirror.
That, to me, was worth the price of admission!
At http://www.stressfreepersonalfinance.com we specialize in inspiring tools to set you financially free. Plus there’s free articles and audio to continually inspire you on your path towards financial freedom, radiant health and healthy, fulfilling relationships, because when you have enough money you can easily have all that!
While you’re there be sure to download the FREE special report, “The 7 Affirmations That Took Me From $10,000/Year to $10,000/Month and the Powerful Techniques I Used to Synchronize Them with My Body & Mind” when you sign up for our free inspirational newsletter, Pathway2Abundance @ http://www.Pathway2Abundance.com
Posted by alex on Tuesday, January 20th, 2009
Currency exchange rates in the international currency market are constantly changing. As a result, the real value of buy or sell a currency for the goods or services can significantly change and profitable contract may not be profitable or unprofitable. Currency trading, Forex trading signal, Forex trading strategy, and Forex alerts have made this industry the largest one if one is to consider its trading volume. To understand it better, let us take an example of an inter-bank trading.
Planned risk levels may be increased dramatically under extreme market conditions. Use the ideas and/or modify them to suit your trading style, but only at your own risk. Planning a trade in advance allows a trader to gather intelligence and formulate a strategy before they execute the tactics of getting in/out of a trade according to the plan. The benefits to learning how to plan your forex trading are immediate.
Margins can be as low as 0.05%, going up to 4%, depending on the broker Forex. For the ambitious individual, using leverage can generate massive profits. Margin accounts allow Forex traders to control large amounts of currency with a relatively small deposit. Establishing a margin account with a Forex broker enables you to borrow money from the broker to control currency lots which are usually worth $100,000.
Successfully engaging in currency trading is about managing risk. To decrease the odds of losing, the intelligent currencies trader does all the necessary research and training to become proficient in the FX market. Success with forex-strategies also depends on you putting in the effort to learn and follow your systems of choice. Complicating forex trading strategies by overanalyzing and trying to tweak them means breaking them, and this will jeopardize your success with forex trading.
Trade as me, walk along as me in my journey, you will know that forex trading is not a dream. Of course, it’s not a 100% sniper shot, forex trading is like running a business, take care of the down side, the upside will take care of itself. Trader can acquire and improve trading skills. Use a Forex Training Software as is an excellent tool for studying trading in a fast and convenient way, to gain and improve trading skills without risking real . Trader’s or broker’s purpose is to get the revenue by the foreign exchanges buy and sale. From the latest estimation, FOREX trading average daily constitution is about 4 trillion US dollar.
For more information on Forex Currency Trading visit our site: All You Need to Know About Forex Trading Signals. Download Our Free Forex Trading Report from our website.
Posted by alex on Monday, January 19th, 2009
RSI or Relative Strength Index
RSI or Relative Strength Index is an oscillator and is constructed by measuring a stock or index’ gains against their losses. So if the range of its gains is greater than its losses the oscillator would rise, conversely if the range of its losses were greater the oscillator would fall. Like Moving Averages the oscillator needs a time period offset to measure this activity. The normal default number used by many technicians is 14 although I have also seen and used 20.
The oscillator just like a stock moves up and down in value. The oscillator only has a range of 1 -100 and it is within the confines of this range that it attempts to define what an overbought or oversold condition is in a stock or market. Most programs or analysts follow it using the default below 30 as oversold and above 70 as overbought. This range of under 30 to over 70 does not mean that a stock will not continue to sell down or continue to move up once it hits these ranges. The oscillator can remain below 30 or above 70 for weeks or months depending on which chart you are looking at. There are some who watch for the RSI to pass 50 as an indication that price is trending more dynamically in one direction or the other.
There are many times when the oscillator will not reach 30 during a correction and not reach 70 during an uptrend. We use this indicator as a way of gauging the relative strength of price now to price previous. Those investors that use charts to gauge the significance of price activity want to know if price is strengthening or weakening. It is in this manner that we can help visually to determine if a stock is trending up significantly or downwards in a fashion that will allow us to trade it profitably. Charts are a must if you are an investor/speculator. Without charts and indicators one has no way of knowing whether a stock or market is building strength or becoming weaker.
The RSI can be used in conjunction with other indicators to time the market and gain a, more, well rounded view of trading activity.
The RSI oscillator is also subject to interpretation when viewed through a different, figurative, lens filter. Since the oscillator is subject to movement up and down that activity can be measured or gauged against other activity that has taken place prior to it. Perhaps the most well known (subjective/objective) measure of this activity is called divergence.
Divergence occurs when an oscillator either rises more than or less than it did previously at a same or similar price. This occurrence can also be measured when the oscillator is significantly higher or lower at a current high or low price than at a previous high or low price. Highs and highs and lows and lows can be measured against one another this way. There are other significant nuances to divergence we will not go into in this article but suffice it to say, for now, it can be very important in gauging relative market strength or weakness. Divergence is frequently used to time the market to determine if an uptrend is beginning to fade or if a sell off has lost steam and is getting ready to reverse. Divergence should also be used in conjunction with other tools to more accurately time when this becomes of greater importance.
Trendlines can help to time this activity, with greater precision. As the oscillator begins to rise, or fall,. we watch for pivot points (please see more on pivot points in our article Trendlines and Pivot Points) that have trendlines intersecting them. These trendlines, inevitably, are crossed by price during a reversal or continuation of trend. It is during this crossing that we must watch the oscillator’s activity and gauge whether it is in a strong position or a weak position and is the break of the trendline supporting the direction of the oscillator. If the oscillator and trendline both support the direction and magnitude of the move then we have a greater opportunity to profit from a trade.
This is actually a fairly simple relationship to distinguish but it takes time to appreciate its value which can only be done through observation and patience.
For more on RSI check out the book New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems by J. Welles Wilder.
For more on Trendlines and how they can help you in your investing goals please visit http://www.trendlinebreakout.com/Newsletter
Posted by alex on Saturday, January 17th, 2009
Back in 2001, Congress changed the law on estate taxes, creating estate tax exemptions that changed over the years. For instance, in 2008, the exemption from federal estate tax is set at $2 million. If you have one dollar more than that number, your excess will be taxed at 45 percent plus, depending on the amount of the excess.
According to this legislation, the federal estate tax exemption amount was to increase in 2009 to $3.5 million and in 2010, the federal estate tax was abolished for a year. Even though your estate may not be subject to federal estate tax if you were to pass in 2010, your estate will not receive a “stepped up” basis in that year. In other words, your estate is “trading” the federal estate tax for the capital gains tax in that one year.
As this law now exists, in 2011, the federal estate tax exemption is scheduled to come back at the $1 million amount, with the highest tax rate at 55 percent. This means that many estate plans (wills and trusts) would need to be reviewed to determine how the law would apply and how much tax your estate would be subject to. Obviously, it also would mean that many more estates would be subject to federal estate taxes if this were to happen.
Despite that there is only one year left before the federal estate tax is repealed and then springs back with a $1 million exemption and a higher top tax rate, Congress has failed to act. Some years ago, there was a movement to abolish the federal estate tax altogether, as the thought was that a person paid taxes of many varieties all their lives and should be allowed to transfer the balance of their assets tax free to their children. Despite this fact, Congress instead entered into this compromise and has failed to place estate tax reform on the front burner.
This lack of action by Congress has caused people to be on a roller coaster, having to monitor their account fluctuations on an annual basis to determine how the law in that year will apply to them. The conventional wisdom was that Congress would act sometime before the 2010 reset of the exemption to make a more permanent reform. In March, some members of the Senate Finance Committee set forth a budget resolution that included a nonbinding amendment that would freeze the estate tax at 2009 levels, meaning that $3.5 million worth of an estate would be exempt (or $7 million for a couple, if properly structured). The rest of the estate above the exemption would then be taxed at 45 percent. There have been a number of other proposals put forward, some of which are more generous federal estate tax exemptions.
Until Congress acts, be prepared to ride the roller coaster!
Denice Gierach is a lawyer and owner of The Gierach Law Firm in Naperville. She is a certified public accountant and has a master\’s degree in management. She may be reached at deniceg@gierachlawfirm.com. For more information on Denice and The Gierach Law Firm visit Gierach Law Firm.
Posted by alex on Friday, January 16th, 2009
I would like to talk about 10 common mistakes in trading. New traders are often unaware of what is required in trading and the bad habits that can lead to financial suicide.
1. Under capitalization - One of the first mistake I made when beginning to trade was being under capitalized. I started with a $10K account without any idea on how to trade. You need enough capital to learn and gain the experience. Some like to call the initial stake “market tuition.” If you can avoid paying your dues, great for you. But most new traders will lose their money. Just make sure you learn from every loss.
2. Having the approach to trading as a “learn as you trade” - Big mistake. “Learn as you trade” = losing money. Losing money can lead to emotional and financial stress and may even create enough fear in you making it hard to trade. Make sure you come prepared to the battlefield. Be a strategist. Sun Tzu said, “The battle is won before it is fought.” Think about it.
3. Trading as a hobby - Take a look at your hobbies. Do they make money? Hobbies in general are entertainment that cost money. Do not approach trading as a hobby. Treat it like a business. Develop a business plan, have goals, and understand what you want out of trading.
4. Thinking that you know it all - The moment one thinks he knows it all is the moment he has become a fool. Its impossible to know everything about the markets. This is a lifetime learning process. Find your niche…. find your speciality and be an expert in it. In other words, find your edge. One thing I learned in trading is that niche = money.
5. Trading without a plan - One of the worst things you can do as a trader is to trade without a plan. Trading without a plan is like driving in a new area without a map or a navigation system. You are lost.
6. Not following your trading plan - Okay so now you have a trading plan. Why don’t you just follow it? A common mistake among traders is not following a developed trading plan. This leads to impulse trading or emotional trading.
7. Wanting to be right - Are you trying to be right? Or are you trying to make money? This is a hard one… I personally have to battle myself to avoid this bad habit. Our egos interupt with our trading and we tend to want to prove something to ourself or someone else. The markets do not care what you think. You are in it to make money.
8. Money Management - Strict money management is a necessity. Set your risk parameters for all your trading setups. A common rule is to risk no more than 2% on one trade. I prefer 1%. Being long 10 different stocks at 2% risk per trade is not a good idea. In fact you are risking 20%. Know your size and do not double up your position after a series of losses. Be a grinder and not a cowboy.
9. Have realistic goals - Too many traders come into this arena without unrealistic goals. Questions like “Can I make a million my first year with a $10k account?” Sure you can….. but is that really realistic? Focus on crafting your trading. When you know how to trade the money will flow naturally.
10. Not analyzing yourself and your trades - This a poker habit I have. I tend to analyze every losing and winning hand to learn from it. Traders need to do the same and analyze every trade. Think about it after the trading hours and focus on what you can do to improve. Trading is a constant journey of soul searching as well. Understand yourself and you will significantly improve your trading.
James Lee is a full-time day trader specializing in the mini-sized Dow futures. His core trading strategy is based on pivot point clusters and Market Profile. Find out how to identify high probability trading opportunities at http://www.traderslaboratory.com
Posted by alex on Thursday, January 15th, 2009
Penny stocks, and day trading in general, are attractive because profits can be realized in a short amount of time. Unfortunately, that short-term profit often puts traders into a short-term mindset. And when it comes to money management and goal setting, short term thinking can be devastating.
The very reason for day trading is to make a greater profit than might be possible in any other investment vehicle. And it certainly can be if done correctly. But if the mindset is only for the short-term goal of getting rich quick, then you can be guaranteed, disaster looms ahead.
To truly cash in on penny stocks profits, one must have a longer term outlook. Now, I’m not talking about the time period of a trade. I’m talking about the overall plan and expectations. Not trade-by-trade. Not even week-by-week. But how about developing a life-time system? (Sort of like a developing a life-time mindset of eating healthy as opposed to crash diets.)
Two Aspects of Trading
Let’s examine two aspects of trading. The first is when to get in and when to get out of the market. When to pull the trigger, where to set the trailing stops, when to make the exits. To help you in these decisions, there are trading systems, software, newsletters, hot lines, trading reports, and the list goes on. These are all tremendous helps. (See below for some of the better ones available.)
But the second aspect often goes begging - and it is a decision made every time a trade is executed. That decision is: how much of your capital are you going to risk on one trade? This decision often has more to do with your success than knowledge of the market itself.
Your decision of how much you are willing to risk must be made way ahead of the moment you pull the trigger to make your trade.
A Simple Example.
One trader followed the advice of a trading service (perhaps much like Marl, the Stock Trading Robot). For a year this trader made trades according to the advice given. At the end of the year his account reached $27,000. The next year, he pulled in $15,000. He now was in profits for $42,000. Pretty good, right?
Trader number two used the same service. Contrary to trader number one, this trader applied conservative money management principles. His first year netted him $63,000. (If you’re slow with math, that is a 233% increase over trader number one.) The second year, he continued in his conservative pattern and brought in $113,000. His total profits added up to $176,000. A whopping 419% more than trader number one.
The third year showed a downturn in the trading service and there was a loss of $15,000. Trader number one wound up with a profit of $27,000 for the three years. Trader number two, however, stood at $102,000 in total profits. Hence trader number one wound up giving back all his profits.
The question is, which trader would you rather be?
What Can Money Management Do For You?
- Keep you from being wiped out.
- Allow you to approach system trading with a plan and the ability to continue trading even if the system fails miserably.
- Increase your profits five- to tenfold (500 percent to 1,000 percent) without increasing your overall risk of the account. (It may even decrease the overall percent at risk in the account.)
- Protect your profits should the system fail you.
There are three vital questions that every trader must ask regarding money management:
- What is the goal of your account?
- What is the total risk you are willing to take to achieve that goal?
- What are the available resources to achieve your goal without violating your risk tolerance levels?
With every penny stock day trader the answers will be different. What is right for you might not be right for your trading buddy.
Understanding money management will allow you apply the principles to your trading to accomplish your goals - without violating your risk tolerance levels.
Three Simple Tips in Money Management:
- Limit Order: Know how to place a limit order when buying stock. No surprises. You buy only at the exact price you specify, usually somewhere between the bid and ask price on your screen.
- Stop-loss market order: Immediately after you buy, place your stop-loss market sell order with your online broker. This 30-second act of typing in symbol, price, shares, and the time period during which you want this order in place will automatically sell your stock later, at the price you have predetermined should the market take a surprise nosedive.
- Sell order: Decide on the price at which you’d like to sell. Don’t get greedy. (Greed and fear are the twin killers in trading. Keep greed glands in check at all times.) Keep that number written down on a piece of paper and keep it close at hand. If the stock zooms up further, you can always buy back in for $8 or $10 or $30 commissions. That better than losing your entire investment.
Online day trading is a tremendous opportunity to grow your cash reserves. But please educate yourself along the way. Just as a person can self-educate in the areas of finance and the Internet, you can learn how to safely profit by day trading penny stocks.
In the area of money management ask yourself:
- Are you strong enough to create a plan of action and stick with it?
- Are you strong enough to walk away when winning? (Hint: Emotions are dangerous to your trading health.)
We’ve all read the statistics that approximately 70% of all traders lose money. Isn’t it ironic that in the trading industry, more than 70% of all traders ignore money management. Hmmm. Could it be coincidence?
Only you can determine if this venture is for you. And if it is, be wise enough to include prudent money management into your trading system.
Daytrading Coach - Free 60- minute Coaching Session: Stop stumbling in your day trading. Let seasoned traders (3 of them floor traders) teach you their techniques and systems. Free trial coaching session. Hurry, before you lose another dollar. http://www.dblpennystox.com/rockwell2
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Posted by alex on Wednesday, January 14th, 2009